Fourth Turning Capital

Research & publications

Signals for the long arc.

Evidence-led analysis of the geopolitical, liquidity, industrial, and real-economy forces shaping durable capital allocation.

Follow via RSS

Latest insights

1 publication

FTC Weekly Signal · Weekly Signal

Diplomacy Is Reopening. Constraints Are Not.

Trilateral diplomacy is scheduled to reopen in November, but continued military escalation, modest reserve drainage, and a widening U.S. industrial-security policy keep the operating environment constrained.

5 min read

Facts, interpretation, and uncertainty remain distinct.

FTC publications identify the evidence, state the interpretation, frame plausible scenarios, and disclose what would change the view. Security selection, valuation, entry conditions, position sizing, and proprietary model outputs remain private.